PODCAST: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/fife-properties/episodes/UK-House-Price-Index-For-Scotland-January-2025-e30ocba
Economic statement
Total transaction volumes and new build volumes available to calculate UK HPI estimates have increased recently. HM Land Registry has processed over 40% of HM Revenue & Customs’ provisional sales estimate for UK HPI’s first estimate in recent months, though transaction volumes for older periods and new build volumes remain lower than historical averages. Users should be aware that revisions may be larger than historically and should note the greater uncertainty around new build prices. Further information is available in HM Land Registry’s UK House Price Index summary.
Average house prices in Scotland increased by 4.6% in the 12 months to January 2025, to £187,000 (provisional estimate). This was down from 5.9% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to December 2024 and was lower than the average UK house price annual inflation of 4.9% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to January 2025.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland increased by 0.2% between December 2024 and January 2025 compared with an increase of 1.5% in the same period 12 months ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 0.2% between December 2024 and January 2025.
Comparing the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for November 2023 with the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for November 2024, the volume of transactions increased by 19.2% in Scotland and increased by 31.7% in the UK.
In Scotland, terraced houses had the highest annual percentage change out of all property types, increasing by 5.8% in the 12 months to January 2025 to £172,000. Flats and maisonettes had the lowest annual percentage change, which increased by 2.9% in the 12 months to January 2025 to an average price of £132,000.
In Scotland, 28 of the 32 local authority areas showed an increase in average house prices in the 12 months to January 2025. Excluding Orkney Islands due to volatility from low sales volumes, the highest annual percentage change was in Moray and Renfrewshire, where average house prices increased by 9.7% in the 12 months to January 2025 to £201,000 and £157,000, respectively. Excluding Na h-Eileanan Siar due to volatility from low sales volumes, the lowest annual percentage change was in City of Aberdeen, where average house prices decreased by 2.3% in the 12 months to January 2025 to £141,000.
As with other indicators in the housing market, which typically fluctuate from month to month, it is important not to put too much weight on one month’s set of house price data.
