Economic statement
Total transaction volumes and new build volumes available to calculate UK HPI estimates have increased recently. HM Land Registry has processed over 40% of HM Revenue & Customs’ provisional sales estimate for UK HPI’s first estimate in recent months, though transaction volumes for older periods and new build volumes remain lower than historical averages. Users should be aware that revisions may be larger than historically and should note the greater uncertainty around new build prices.
On 20 August 2025, ONS introduced an improvement to HPI’s imputation method for Great Britain, which reduces initial over-estimation of new build estimates in provisional estimates. Due to reducing the initial over-estimation of new build inflation, we have reported a larger downwards revision to recent months’ estimates this month, as expected. Since this methods improvement increases the accuracy of our initial estimates, we expect overall revisions between provisional (1st) and final revised (13th) UK HPI estimates to be smaller moving forwards. More detail about this methods improvement is available in section 4.9 of HMLR’s About the UK House Price Index document.
ONS will continue to monitor revisions and identify potential further methods improvements in the future. Further information is available in HM Land Registry’s UK House Price Index summary.
Average house prices in Scotland increased by 5.9% in the 12 months to June 2025, to £192,000 (provisional estimate). This was up from 4.1% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to May 2025 and was above than the average UK house price annual inflation of 3.7% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to June 2025.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland increased by 2.2% between May 2025 and June 2025 compared with an increase of 0.4% in the same period 12 months ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland increased by 1% between May 2025 and June 2025.
Comparing the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for April 2024 with the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for April 2025, the volume of transactions decreased by 0.6% in Scotland and decreased by 8.9% in the UK.
In Scotland, semi-detached houses had the highest annual percentage change out of all property types, increasing by 7.8% in the 12 months to June 2025 to £218,000. Flats and maisonettes had the lowest annual percentage change, which increased by 3.9% in the 12 months to May 2025 to an average price of £136,000.
In Scotland, 27 of the 32 local authority areas showed an increase in average house prices in the 12 months to June 2025. The highest annual percentage change was in Perth and Kinross, where average house prices increased by 12.3% in the 12 months to June 2025 to £229,000. The lowest annual percentage change was in Moray, where average house prices decreased by 2.8% in the 12 months to June 2025, to £189,000.
As with other indicators in the housing market, which typically fluctuate from month to month, it is important not to put too much weight on one month’s set of house price data.