Economic statement
Total transaction volumes and new build volumes available to calculate UK HPI estimates have increased recently. HM Land Registry has processed over 40% of HM Revenue & Customs’ provisional sales estimate for UK HPI’s first estimate in recent months, though transaction volumes for older periods and new build volumes remain lower than historical averages. Users should be aware that revisions may be larger than historically and should note the greater uncertainty around new build prices. Further information is available in HM Land Registry’s UK House Price Index summary.
Average house prices in Scotland increased by 6.4% in the 12 months to May 2025, to £192,000 (provisional estimate). This was up from 6.2% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to April 2025 and was above than the average UK house price annual inflation of 3.9% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to May 2025.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland remained unchanged (0.0%) between April 2025 and May 2025 compared with a decrease of 0.1% in the same period 12 months ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 0.1% between April 2025 and May 2025.
Comparing the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for March 2024 with the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for March 2025, the volume of transactions decreased by 20.4% in Scotland and increased by 53.8% in the UK.
In Scotland, detached houses had the highest annual percentage change out of all property types, increasing by 9.3% in the 12 months to May 2025 to £358,000. Flats and maisonettes had the lowest annual percentage change, which increased by 4.0% in the 12 months to April 2025 to an average price of £136,000.
Excluding Shetland Islands and Orkney Islands due to volatility from low sales volumes, all local authority areas in Scotland except Aberdeenshire showed an increase in average house prices in the 12 months to May 2025. Excluding Shetland Islands and Orkney Islands due to volatility from low sales volumes, the highest annual percentage change was in Inverclyde, where average house prices increased by 12.5% in the 12 months to May 2025 to £114,000. The lowest annual percentage change was in the Aberdeenshire, where average house prices decreased by 2.5% in the 12 months to May 2025, to £201,000.
As with other indicators in the housing market, which typically fluctuate from month to month, it is important not to put too much weight on one month’s set of house price data.
