Economic statement
Total transaction volumes and new build volumes available to calculate UK HPI estimates have increased recently. HM Land Registry has processed over 40% of HM Revenue & Customs’ provisional sales estimate for UK HPI’s first estimate in recent months, though transaction volumes for older periods and new build volumes remain lower than historical averages. Users should be aware that revisions may be larger than historically and should note the greater uncertainty around new build prices. Further information is available in HM Land Registry’s UK House Price Index summary.
Average house prices in Scotland increased by 4.7% in the 12 months to November 2024, to £195,000 (provisional estimate). This was down from 5.0% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to October 2024 and was higher than the average UK house price annual inflation of 3.3% (provisional estimate) in the 12 months to November 2024.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 0.8% between October 2024 and November 2024 compared with a decrease of 0.5% in the same period 12 months ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in Scotland decreased by 0.1% between October 2024 and November 2024.
Comparing the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for September 2023 with the provisional UK HPI volume estimate for September 2024, the volume of transactions decreased by 0.3% in Scotland and decreased by 4.5% in the UK.
In Scotland, terraced houses had the highest annual percentage change out of all property types, increasing by 5.7% in the 12 months to November 2024 to £166,000. Flats and maisonettes had the lowest annual percentage change, which increased by 3.6% in the 12 months to November 2024 to an average price of £135,000.
In Scotland, 31 of the 32 local authority areas showed an increase in average house prices in the 12 months to November 2024. The highest annual percentage change was in Renfrewshire, where average house prices increased by 9.4% in the 12 months to November 2024 to £171,000. Excluding Na h-Eileanan Siar due to volatility from low sales volumes, the lowest annual percentage change was in North Ayrshire, where average house prices increased by 1.4% in the 12 months to November 2024 to £133,000.
As with other indicators in the housing market, which typically fluctuate from month to month, it is important not to put too much weight on one month’s set of house price data.
